For those interesting in my plays in 26min
I have now flipped off the NO - on DISSENT sold my shares at 57c
Swept the order book at 69c for YES
2 people Dissented the decision for a 0.25bps cut.
I believe i just managed to scrounge up some free dollars.
The BIGGEST Mention Market of the MONTH
&& I got my plays.
We going HARD on the NO's
Government Shutdown, data may be sparse.
Plays Below
______
Inflation 50 + Times | NO
◦ Has hit 5/6 times, with 4 being only 1-2 times over
◦ Gov shutdown means data will be minimal, therefor i lean less talking in general, we take the coin flip for NO
Unemployment / Employment 25+ Times | NO
◦ Same idea as the above, data will be lower due to shutdown
◦ Averages 29 mentions, with the opening part of the speeches closer to 13+ times, if this is less than 10 in the opening comments, we should have an easy hit here
◦ Odds are skewed to the Yes, I like the risk
Recession | NO
◦ He stays away from this word almost ENTIRELY
◦ Said it once in April, due to the tariff situation at the time, and since has not said it, think that trend continues.
Dissent | NO
◦ Had said it only previously due to the 1st dissent from members in years, in July meeting
◦ I believe the trend continues where this is not mentioned
◦ Only concern is if asked during Q&A about it, where he had mentioned it 2x in 1 sentence
AI / Artificial Intelligence | NO
◦ Said it during Q&A, one time each of the previous two meetings
◦ Taking the much lower odds on the no, in hopes we are past the AI questions, but can accept a loss here for the better odds
WE RIDE!


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