在同一市场环境下,不同币种的节奏、资金流入情况和交易者信心可以截然不同。 这一次,比特币和 #BCH 同时触发了日线级别的超买信号。 比特币已经下跌了7%,而BCH却不为所动,甚至刚刚拉涨了3%。这类走势背离,很容易给人制造出一种“BCH强于大盘”的错觉。 实战中,逆势币种往往最难判断。 但只需记住:绝大多数币种,在绝大多数时间里,仍然只是比特币的“跟随者”。 表面强势,未必能独立走完一段完整周期。大盘未稳时,往往先行熄火。 所以,遇到这类分化行情,不妨克制“错过”的冲动。 当然,抓到逆势的币种确实有种人无我有的暗爽感~~
在日线窗口,从价格形态来看,比特币 #bitcoin 当前高低点大致平行,整体处于一个宽幅震荡区间内。 进一步结合技术指标观察,价格对过去几次的超买和超卖信号表现出较高的“尊重度”,每次触发信号后,价格均出现阶段性反转,这一行为进一步印证了震荡格局的有效性。 基于这两层逻辑判断:比特币当前确实处于宽幅震荡行情之中,而非单边趋势。 接下来的重点,是观察下一次超买信号何时出现、落点在哪。 如果刚好叠加在关键压力位上,那就是一个值得关注的区间上沿震荡做空机会。
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